NOAA is indicating a 20–40% chance of tropical cyclone development in the Bay of Campeche and the western Caribbean during mid-October.
Models suggest the formation of a Central American Gyre that could trigger heavy rainfall and can sometimes spin up organized tropical systems on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of Central America.
While a strong, ongoing El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic tropical activity, a subseasonal Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave moving through the Western Hemisphere may temporarily provide favorable conditions for this development.